South Africa’s economy was 4.9% larger than previously measured in 2022 after Stats SA updated its gross domestic product calculations and improved its estimates of economic activity that had not been fully captured in the national accounts.
The revised figures put GDP at current prices at R7 trillion in 2022, compared with the earlier estimate of R6.7 trillion. The data, published by the statistics agency in Pretoria on Thursday, reflects changes to the way the economy is classified and measured rather than a sudden increase in production.
Why the figures changed
Stats SA periodically rebases the national accounts to ensure that the weights assigned to different industries reflect the economy more accurately. For this update, production patterns from 2022 were used as the basis for calculating the relative size of sectors.
The process resulted in broader changes across the economy, although the largest adjustment was recorded in mining. The sector’s contribution increased by 12.5%, with Stats SA attributing the change mainly to improved coverage of illegal mining and its inclusion in the estimates of activity that is not directly observed through standard data collection.
Illegal mining has expanded in South Africa as the price of gold has risen. Including more of this activity gives the national accounts a fuller picture of transactions and production, even though the activity remains unlawful and presents significant challenges for law enforcement, communities and the mining industry.
Services and the unobserved economy
The second-largest increase in sector weighting was recorded in finance, real estate and business services, whose contribution rose by 9.1%. The adjustment indicates that these activities occupy a larger place in the economy than the previous set of calculations showed.
Stats SA also revised the estimated contribution of the unobserved economy. This category includes parts of the informal economy as well as illicit and illegal activities. Its share increased to 8.7%, from the previous estimate of 7.3%.
| Measure | Previous estimate | Revised figure |
|---|---|---|
| GDP at current prices in 2022 | R6.7 trillion | R7 trillion |
| Unobserved economy’s contribution | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| Mining contribution adjustment | - | 12.5% increase |
| Finance, real estate and business services adjustment | - | 9.1% increase |
What the revision means
The revised total provides government, businesses and other users of economic data with an updated measure of the economy’s structure. It also changes the relative importance assigned to sectors when GDP is analysed, compared and used for economic planning.
- GDP in 2022 was revised upwards to R7 trillion at current prices.
- Mining recorded the largest sectoral adjustment, partly because illegal mining was better captured.
- Unobserved activity now accounts for an estimated 8.7% of the economy.
The updated numbers do not mean that South Africa generated an additional R300 billion in new economic output in 2022. Instead, the revision reflects a more comprehensive calculation of activity that had already taken place, alongside a new weighting system based on the composition of production in that year.
The inclusion of more informal, illicit and illegal activity also highlights the limits of relying only on conventional records to assess the economy. Areas that are difficult to measure can have a material impact on national statistics, particularly in sectors such as mining where activity may occur outside the formal system.
Stats SA’s revision therefore changes both the headline size of the economy and the picture of how that economy is assembled. The updated national accounts place greater weight on mining, financial and business services, while recording a larger role for activity that had previously been undercounted or excluded from the official estimates.
