Buffalo City is heading towards another uncertain political contest, with parties preparing for the possibility that no single organisation will secure enough support to govern the Eastern Cape metro alone. The prospect of a coalition has placed post-election negotiations at the centre of the campaign, even as parties make their final appeals to voters.
The African National Congress will hold its traditional final rally, known as Siyanqoba, at Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane, KuGompo, on Sunday. The event comes as the party campaigns to retain control of Buffalo City, where it secured 59.4% of the vote in the 2021 local government elections and won the municipality outright.
That previous result does not guarantee a repeat performance. The Economic Freedom Fighters and the United Democratic Movement have expressed confidence that they can make significant gains, raising the possibility of a sharply divided council. The Democratic Alliance does not have a mayoral candidate in Buffalo City, adding another dimension to a contest in which the leading parties are attempting to position themselves as the main alternative to the governing party.
Parties prepare for different outcomes
UDM deputy president and Member of Parliament Nqabayomzi Kwankwa is the party’s mayoral candidate in Buffalo City. He has indicated that he would leave the national legislature to lead the municipality if the UDM were to win an outright majority.
“If that does not happen, we will depend on a coalition government. We will do an assessment, we will enter any talks about forming a coalition if there is no party with an outright majority,” Kwankwa said.
His position reflects the uncertainty facing parties that may have to negotiate after the votes are counted. Kwankwa said his political role after the municipal elections would depend on the result of those discussions if no party emerged with decisive control of Buffalo City.
For residents, the significance of that uncertainty lies beyond the political arithmetic. A council that depends on agreements between several parties must maintain working relationships to elect office-bearers, approve plans and pass decisions. Where those relationships break down, the administration can become vulnerable to changes in support and repeated political disputes.
- Buffalo City: The ANC won 59.4% in the 2021 local government elections.
- UDM: Nqabayomzi Kwankwa is the party’s mayoral candidate.
- EFF: Mkhululi Dlevu said the party was seeking to finish first.
- Nelson Mandela Bay: The DA is fielding former mayor Retief Odendaal.
Nelson Mandela Bay remains a key contest
The political uncertainty is not confined to Buffalo City. Nelson Mandela Bay, the province’s other metropolitan municipality, lies less than 300 kilometres to the south and has already been governed through a coalition arrangement led by the ANC.
That administration included the EFF, the National Alliance, Defenders of the People, the PAC and the African Independent Congress, with support from the UDM. The municipality’s experience has made it an important reference point in discussions about the prospects and pressures of coalition government in the province.
The DA is fielding former mayor Retief Odendaal as its mayoral candidate in Nelson Mandela Bay. Odendaal was removed from office in 2023 through a motion of no confidence submitted by the ANC and the EFF. He was replaced by National Alliance president Gary van Niekerk, who is now the deputy mayor.
Van Niekerk served as mayor until 2024, according to the reporting on the metro’s political developments. The changes in leadership underline how quickly control of a municipality can shift when no party commands a stable majority and parties must rely on negotiated support.
What voters will be weighing
In Buffalo City, the ANC’s rally will be an opportunity to demonstrate organisational strength before voting, while opposition parties will seek to turn dissatisfaction and electoral momentum into council representation. EFF mayoral candidate Mkhululi Dlevu said his party was competing to become the largest organisation in the metro and predicted an outright EFF victory.
“There will be an outright winner, that winner will be EFF,” Dlevu said.
The ANC’s Dr W.B. Rubusana regional secretary, Anele Lizo, did not respond to several requests for comment during the week. The absence of a response leaves the party’s position on possible coalition negotiations unclear, although its final rally is expected to provide a platform for its closing campaign message.
The UDM is also campaigning in King Sabata Dalindyebo Local Municipality, which includes party leader Bantu Holomisa’s hometown of Mqanduli. That broader provincial presence gives the party an interest beyond Buffalo City, although its immediate mayoral ambitions are focused on the metro.
For communities across both metros, the central question will be whether the eventual council arrangements can provide dependable administration. Coalition talks may determine who occupies the mayor’s office, but residents will ultimately judge the result through the municipality’s ability to make decisions and maintain continuity. The final election outcome, rather than pre-election claims, will decide whether either metro is governed by a single majority or once again depends on negotiated political support.
