The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has claimed that it is positioned to defeat President Bola Tinubu and the governing All Progressives Congress in the majority of states across Nigeria’s North-east and North-west during the 2027 elections.
The claim was made by ADC vice-presidential candidate Rotimi Amaechi at the party’s presidential campaign rally in Bauchi. Amaechi said the opposition party had backing across all 13 states in the two northern geopolitical zones, although the report did not provide polling, membership or election results to substantiate the assertion.
He also predicted that the ADC would win Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa states, while challenging the APC in the South-South and North-Central regions. The remarks represent an ambitious electoral projection from a party seeking to establish itself as a national alternative ahead of the vote.
“We are the only party that comes with 13 states. The whole of North-east, the whole of North-west, that is 13, right?”
Amaechi, a former Rivers State governor and former minister of transportation, said the party would not accept what he alleged was a repeat of events during the 2023 general election. He did not provide specific details in the rally remarks about the alleged conduct or identify the measures the party would take to prevent a recurrence.
His comments also targeted Tinubu’s support in the South-West. Amaechi claimed that the president had the backing of five states in the region and predicted that the APC would lose another to the Allied Peoples Movement. These claims were presented as campaign forecasts rather than independently verified electoral assessments.
Atiku sets out campaign promises
The rally also featured ADC presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president, who promised to restore the fuel subsidy if elected and said he would tackle insecurity. The report did not include a timetable, funding plan or explanation of how a restored subsidy would be administered.
Fuel subsidy policy is likely to remain a significant issue in the campaign because it directly affects the cost of transport and household goods. However, the available campaign account does not set out the proposed price structure, the anticipated cost to the state or how the policy would be balanced against other public spending priorities.
| Campaign figure | Claim or promise |
|---|---|
| Rotimi Amaechi | ADC support in 13 North-east and North-west states |
| Rotimi Amaechi | Projected victories in Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa |
| Atiku Abubakar | Restore the fuel subsidy and address insecurity |
| Atiku Abubakar | Continue oil exploration at the Kolmani Oil Field |
Atiku also pledged to continue oil exploration at the Kolmani Oil Field in Bauchi State. The report did not state the present status of the project, its expected production levels or the economic benefits already delivered to the area.
The promise places the Bauchi rally within a broader contest over energy policy and regional development. By linking the proposed continuation of exploration to his campaign, Atiku signalled that the project would remain part of the ADC’s economic message in Bauchi. No further details were given on the regulatory, environmental or infrastructure arrangements that would accompany the pledge.
Opposition seeks national reach
Amaechi said the ADC would compete with the APC in the South-South and North-Central zones, while predicting that Tinubu would make no significant gains in the South-East. He repeated his confidence that the opposition would win, but the campaign remarks did not include constituency-level targets, candidate lists or evidence showing how the party intends to convert its claimed regional presence into votes.
The central question for the ADC will be whether its organisational strength extends beyond a campaign rally and into the structures required for a national election. The party’s claims cover several regions and include states with different political histories, but the report gives no details on its local branches, election agents or coalition arrangements.
For voters, the statements leave several practical issues requiring clarification: the cost of restoring fuel subsidies, the proposed strategy for reducing insecurity, and the funding and timeline for continued oil exploration. The party’s regional electoral forecasts will also be tested against voter registration, candidate selection, campaign organisation and the eventual vote count.
Atiku said conditions would improve under an ADC government, while Amaechi maintained that the party would defeat Tinubu across the northern zones. With the 2027 election still ahead, both messages remain campaign positions rather than established electoral outcomes.
