The City of Cape Town is preparing for the prospect of formal water restrictions as early as December, after the National Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) warned that storage levels across the Western Cape water supply system are too low, climate scientist Peter Johnston said.
Modelling to confirm outlook before decisions
The DWS will run a confirmatory modelling exercise at the end of October and into early November to refine water availability projections for the coming months. Municipalities, including the City of Cape Town, will then be asked to translate national and catchment-level guidance into local measures, with agricultural users told how much less water they must use.
Johnston, of the University of Cape Town's Climate System Analysis Group, told CapeTalk that while recent rain provided some relief, the immediate outlook is not encouraging and rainfall probabilities drop further into November.
"As we get into November, the chances of rainfall are much smaller," Johnston said.
He emphasised that early measures will likely focus on demand management and preventing waste rather than immediate, severe curbs on household supply.
Who uses the water?
Johnston highlighted the distribution of water use across the system: agriculture accounts for around 30% of the Western Cape water supply system’s consumption, while the City of Cape Town and urban users account for roughly 65%. That means restrictions will have to balance agricultural allocations with urban conservation measures.
| Sector | Approximate share of water use |
|---|---|
| Agriculture | 30% |
| City / urban users | 65% |
What residents can expect
Johnston said the City faces a difficult balancing act as it prepares for a hot summer. Early-stage restrictions are expected to prioritise behaviour change and waste reduction. These could include intensified public messaging, enforcement against conspicuous waste, and targeted measures for high-consumption users.
He cautioned that households and businesses will be encouraged to reduce non-essential use rather than face punitive cuts immediately. The DWS modelling outcome next month will determine whether tighter volumetric restrictions or schedules are needed.
- Timing: Confirmatory modelling by DWS through late October and early November; outcomes communicated next month.
- Focus: Initial measures likely to emphasise demand reduction and preventing waste.
- Allocation considerations: Agriculture accounts for about 30% of system use; urban users about 65%.
Local impact and planning
For Cape Town households the immediate implications are simple but practical: reduce non-essential outdoor use, check for leaks, and be mindful of high-volume activities such as garden irrigation and frequent pool top-ups. For businesses and institutions that draw large volumes, early planning will be important to avoid abrupt operational disruptions if restrictions are tightened.
Municipalities will determine their own restriction levels based on the DWS modelling and local supply conditions. That means households in different parts of the province could face different rules, depending on reservoir levels and local demand patterns.
City officials have previously said they aim to balance conservation with equity, seeking to protect essential supply while targeting high-volume consumers for greater reductions. Johnston reiterated that approach, saying cuts should be implemented "without being too punitive" while still achieving meaningful reductions.
What to watch for next
Residents should look out for the DWS modelling results and any communications from the City about specific restriction levels or by-laws. Practical steps people can take immediately include:
- Fixing dripping taps and leaks promptly.
- Reducing garden watering and using greywater where safe and appropriate.
- Running washing machines and dishwashers only with full loads.
With the potential for a hot, dry summer and limited rainfall expected in November, early conservation measures could reduce the likelihood of more severe curbs later in the season. The coming weeks of DWS modelling and municipal planning will determine whether Cape Town and other Western Cape municipalities will move to formal restrictions by December.
Claire Botha, Correspondent for the Western Cape
