The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that Cyclone Arnab, which formed over the Bay of Bengal from a deep depression, is likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm before making landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28. The system, tracked on Monday morning about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, is forecast to cross the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, with landfall expected near Yanam.
IMD forecast and timing
According to the IMD bulletin, Arnab had strengthened into a cyclonic storm by 5.30 am on Monday and is expected to reach severe cyclonic storm strength by the night of October 26. The agency projects further intensification on October 27, with the system attaining very severe cyclonic storm intensity before moving ashore on October 28.
The storm is forecast to move generally west-northwestwards at around 15 kmph during the approach. At the time of landfall, sustained winds are likely to be in the range of 115–125 kmph, with gusts that could reach up to 140 kmph. Coastal districts between Krishna and Anakapalli may experience speeds of 90–100 kmph and gusts up to 110 kmph by the evening of October 27, the IMD said.
Rainfall, inland spread and weakening
The IMD has cautioned that Andhra Pradesh will receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on October 27 and 28, with extremely heavy showers possible at isolated locations. The weather system is also expected to bring significant rainfall well inland: eastern Telangana and southern Chhattisgarh could face extremely heavy rains on October 28, while northern Chhattisgarh may see similar conditions on October 29.
After landfall, the cyclone is expected to weaken gradually — first into a cyclonic storm on the evening of October 28 and then into a deep depression by October 29 — but not before affecting a broad swathe of central and eastern India with heavy rains between October 28 and 30, including parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Vidarbha, eastern Madhya Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Regional advisories and measures
In neighbouring Odisha, authorities have already imposed restrictions: fishing in the sea has been prohibited and tourist entry limited across several coastal districts as a precautionary measure. The state government also issued red alerts for multiple districts and decided to suspend some services and institutions in the path of the storm.
- Sea and coastal users: Fishing banned in parts of Odisha; coastal communities in Andhra Pradesh should avoid venturing into the sea during the warning period.
- Timing to watch: Heavy winds expected from the evening of October 27 along coastal belts; most intense impacts likely around midday on October 28 during landfall.
- After landfall: Flooding and gusty winds may affect interior districts as the system moves inland and weakens.
Wind and rainfall summary
| Parameter | Forecast / Range |
|---|---|
| Landfall window | By forenoon of October 28 (near Yanam; between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam) |
| Sustained winds at landfall | 115–125 kmph |
| Gusts | Up to 140 kmph |
| Coastal winds (Krishna–Anakapalli) | 90–100 kmph, gusts to 110 kmph |
| Rainfall | Heavy to very heavy on Oct 27–28; isolated extremely heavy showers possible |
Implications for Andhra Pradesh
The approaching cyclone carries immediate implications for coastal districts that rely on fishing, agriculture and transport. High winds and intense rainfall can damage standing crops, disrupt harvesting operations and lead to localised flooding in low-lying agricultural tracts. Coastal infrastructure—power lines, communication towers and roads—faces a heightened risk during the passage.
Administrations in the coastal districts are expected to activate disaster response protocols, issue local advisories and coordinate with the state government and IMD bulletins to determine evacuations where necessary. Residents along the coast and in susceptible interior pockets should prepare for heavy rain and intermittent power outages, and follow instructions from local authorities.
How residents can prepare
- Secure loose objects around homes and farms; move livestock and equipment to higher ground if possible.
- Avoid travel during the advisory period; keep emergency kits and essential medications ready.
- Follow updates from the IMD and district administrations; do not rely on unverified social media claims.
The IMD will continue issuing periodic bulletins with updated track, intensity and impact estimates. Coastal communities from Bapatla to Visakhapatnam, and adjacent inland districts, should monitor official advisories closely through October 29 as Arnab moves inland and weakens.
