Online prediction markets draw big bets on Toronto mayoral outcome
Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been wagered on the result of Toronto’s mayoral contest through online prediction platforms, even though some of those services are currently banned in Ontario and gambling on elections is not permitted under Canadian law.
As of late Monday afternoon, Polymarket — a prediction market platform that remains under a two-year ban in Ontario — showed roughly US$426,000 staked on the outcome of the Oct. 26 mayoral vote. Another platform, Kalshi, had more than US$46,000 wagered on the same municipal race, while betting on other Ontario municipal contests, including Mississauga’s election, showed totals of about $24,000 as reported.
- Polymarket — banned in Ontario, roughly US$426,000 wagered
- Kalshi — active prediction market, roughly US$46,000 wagered
- Mississauga — other municipal markets show about $24,000 wagered
Polymarket has been subject to a two-year prohibition in Ontario after provincial regulators determined its operators breached securities rules in April 2025. Despite that, the site continues to list markets that allow users to buy and sell binary contracts on real-world events — including election outcomes — and those markets can be viewed from anywhere.
“You basically pretend that you’re in a different country,” said Andreas Park, a finance professor at the Rotman School, describing how someone could use a virtual private network to access a banned platform.
The presence of large sums on these platforms raises practical and legal questions for Torontonians. Under federal and provincial frameworks, betting directly on the result of an election is effectively prohibited for Canadians. Meanwhile the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) — the self-regulatory body that oversees certain trading activities in Canada — has tightened what prediction trading looks like in the country.
In March of this year, CIRO authorised only two platforms to operate in Canada for prediction trading — Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. — and imposed limits on the kinds of events that can be traded. Those permitted event categories are narrow, focused on economic and financial indicators and some environment forecasts, rather than political contests.
CIRO’s restrictions mean domestic, regulated trading in election outcomes is not available through the authorised channels. But experts warn that borderless internet platforms, together with tools such as virtual private networks (VPNs), complicate enforcement.
Park said it is difficult to determine whether activity on prediction markets has surged specifically for Canadian elections, noting that similar patterns appeared during the last federal vote. He suggested the practice is not new, but the visibility of large wagers on this Toronto race highlights the scale.
Local implications and enforcement challenges
For Toronto voters, the betting figures underscore the way online markets can intersect with local politics. While there is no indication bets influence the administration of the election, regulators and legal authorities face practical hurdles in policing overseas platforms that make markets available globally.
Enforcement rests in part on the ability of provincial regulators and CIRO to restrict access and to sanction operators who offer services in contravention of Ontario rules. The Polymarket ban, carried out after findings of securities-law violations, demonstrates one approach. Yet the continued presence of significant sums on that site illustrates ongoing access issues.
Municipal officials in Toronto did not announce any new action in response to the reported wagers. The mayoral ballot will be decided by voters on Oct. 26.
| Platform | Reported amount wagered | Ontario status |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | US$426,000 | Banned (two-year ban imposed April 2025) |
| Kalshi | US$46,000 | Accessible |
| Other municipal markets (e.g., Mississauga) | $24,000 | Accessible |
As online platforms continue to evolve, Toronto residents and officials will likely face ongoing decisions about how to address cross-border prediction markets and their potential effects on public confidence. CIRO’s approach — authorizing a limited set of domestic platforms and narrowing permissible event types — aims to reduce unregulated political betting inside Canada, but the international nature of the internet makes complete insulation difficult.
Reporting for this article drew on platform totals and regulatory details as reported publicly and expert comment from the Rotman School of Management. The mayoral election remains scheduled for Oct. 26, when Toronto voters will choose their next mayor.
