Two U.S. House races in Texas that were reshaped by the Republican-controlled Legislature and carried by President Donald Trump in 2024 are unexpectedly competitive, according to a new Washington Post–Schar School poll released Oct. 23. The survey finds Democrats in position to win one seat and in a virtual dead heat in the other, a shift that could alter both parties' plans in the closing days before the midterm election.
Gerrymandered districts show cracks
The poll highlights the 35th Congressional District — covering suburbs and exurbs south and east of San Antonio — as a surprise toss-up after lawmakers redrew the seat earlier this year. In that race, Republican newcomer Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia, also a political newcomer, appear evenly matched.
Nearby along the Gulf Coast, the 34th Congressional District — which runs from Corpus Christi to the Rio Grande Valley — shows Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez holding a modest lead over Republican Eric Flores, with the poll recording a 50 percent–43 percent edge for Gonzalez.
“too far”
The survey points to voter frustration on multiple fronts. It found concerns about the high cost of living and a deportation agenda that a majority of respondents said has gone "too far", factors that may be eroding support for Republicans in these districts.
Analysts and ratings respond
Political observers have taken notice. Veteran analyst Larry Sabato moved the 35th into the toss-up column, and the Cook Political Report likewise shifted the 35th to a toss-up and now lists the 34th as leaning Democratic. Those adjustments mark a significant recalibration, given that Democrats had invested little in the 35th after the Legislature’s redistricting, which was widely seen as drawing a secure Republican path.
The poll carries a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points, which applies to support levels reported for each candidate. Still, the results provide a snapshot of shifting sentiment in districts Trump won handily in 2024.
What the numbers say
| District | Leading candidate | Poll figures |
|---|---|---|
| 34th (Gulf Coast to RGV) | Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) | 50% — 43% |
| 35th (south & east of San Antonio) | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | Race shown as extremely close |
- The poll was conducted in the closing days before the midterm election, published Oct. 23.
- Trump carried both districts by about 10 percentage points in the 2024 presidential race.
- Cook and other forecasters have recently moved both races into more competitive categories.
Local and national implications
For Democrats, even limited gains in Texas would signal progress in a state long dominated by Republicans. A win in the 35th would be particularly stinging for the GOP because it would upend a district Republicans intentionally engineered to favor their party.
For Republicans, the results underscore political risks tied to both policy and messaging. The poll shows a portion of Trump voters in these districts re-evaluating his performance since 2024 — a trend that could jeopardize rising GOP figures, including those touted as promising Latino conservatives.
National party committees will be watching closely in the final days. Democrats may feel emboldened to pour resources into contests they previously deemed unwinnable. Republicans, meanwhile, face pressure to defend seats that redistricting was supposed to secure.
What voters should know in the final week
With early voting concluded in many parts of Texas and Election Day approaching fast, campaigns will intensify advertising, get-out-the-vote drives, and targeted outreach. President Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Corpus Christi on Tuesday, highlighting the national attention these Texas contests are drawing.
The poll does not guarantee outcomes; its margin of error means close races could swing either way. But the findings are a clear reminder that redistricting maps are not unbreakable and that voter sentiment on issues such as the economy and immigration enforcement can reshape expectations even in districts drawn to favor one party.
As the campaigns enter their final stretch, these two South Texas contests will be among those to watch for signals about broader political trends in the state and the nation.
